Inferring snowpack contributions and the mean elevation of source water to streamflow in the Willamette River, Oregon using water stable isotopes

Snowpacks are an important water source for mountainous rivers, worldwide. The timing and volume of streamflow in systems reliant on snowmelt can be affected by changes in snow accumulation and melt time. In the Cascade Range (western USA), seasonal snowpacks are predicted to decrease by over 50% within the next century. During the last decade, Cascade Range snowpacks have varied between 17% and 150% of the median 1981–2023 peak snowpack values. To understand how snowpack variation could affect Willamette River streamflow, we monitored water stable isotopes over 13 years from two sites on the mainstem and 60 streams draining small catchments across the Willamette River Basin. Small catchment water stable isotope values integrated and dampened variation in precipitation isotopes and varied with elevation, providing a marker for determining the mean elevation from which streamflow in the Willamette River was derived. During winter, while snow accumulates in the mountains, most streamflow in the Willamette River originates from rainfall at lower elevations. During summer low-flow conditions, most streamflow in the river was derived from winter snow that accumulated at elevations above 1200 m, which represents < 12% of the Willamette River Basin area. Peak snow water equivalent from the previous winter was positively correlated with the proportion of Willamette River streamflow derived from > 1200 m during the summer low-flow period, but both high elevation (> 1200 m) precipitation and temperature trends explained nearly as much variance as snow water equivalent. However, after accounting for climate trends, the estimated amount of high-elevation streamflow in the Willamette River during summer low-flow has decreased over the past 13 years. Improved understanding of the origin of, and trends in, summer streamflow in the Willamette River will aid in reconciling human demands with biological instream requirements during periods of low snowpack.